With the league’s first-ever Week 18 schedule, the finale of the 2021 NFL season is upon us. With clubs taking it easy with starters, fully packing it in or, in some cases, competing until the end with big matchups on the last weekend of the regular season, it’s a jumble as usual. Week 17 ended up being rather favorable in this space before we moved on to Week 18, though the news (and player availability consequences) broke against us in many games. Still, we continue to provide a high-quality season-long output, and we’ll do everything we can to keep it up.
Before we get to the five-pack of picks, let’s take a short look at the 17-week progress.
3-2 in the previous week.
Season 2021: 48-36-1
Come and get these trophies.
Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5) over Denver Broncos
Because of all the situations in play, handicapping Week 18 is incredibly challenging. This is a game in which one team (Kansas City) has a postseason seeding incentive while another (Denver) has no such incentive. As a result, for a game in the Mile High City, this line is a couple of points higher than it should be. By no means are the Broncos great on offense, but there is no sign that they will not put out an effort, and professionals are professionals who must put excellent performance on tape. Provide me the points if you’re willing to give them.
Green Bay Packers (+4) over Detroit Lions
I have to be truthful. If Tim Boyle is the quarterback for Detroit, I’m going to hate this play. Alas, it appears that Jared Goff will be ready to go on Sunday, and the Lions have been on a roll lately. The Packers aren’t playing Aaron Rodgers in this game, and I’d give Green Bay a power rating with Jordan Love that is at least a score lower. Green Bay, on the other hand, is unlikely to press aggressively at other spots. It’s also a nod to the number four, which is sufficient for Detroit at home.
New England Patriots (+6.5) over Miami Dolphins
The Patriots must win this game, and the Dolphins have nothing to play for, just like the first. That clearly moved the line in New England’s favor by at least a field goal, and that is a huge overreaction. With no power rating in the world that can get you to Miami as a touchdown underdog at home, we’ll hope the Dolphins play for pride on Saturday night.
New Orleans Saints (+4) over Atlanta Falcons
Oh, look, a game in which one team needs to win and the other must be eliminated. The themes are the same, except that New Orleans lacks a reliable offense and this is a rivalry game. In the NFL, I know there aren’t a lot of true rivalries, but the Falcons aren’t going to play down on their opponents, and I think this line should be Saints +1.5.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3) over Las Vegas Raiders
For a reason, this is the Sunday night game, with significant stakes on both sides. This amount is out of whack, and I normally like to fade the Chargers in Los Angeles. At home, the Raiders are undervalued, and the world will be playing catch-up with the Chargers come kickoff. Las Vegas, please.
